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Rs. 40,00,00,00,000 on the stake for Monsoon Betting in India "Come monsoon, Come rain, Pour water, Pour money," seems to be the current rhyme doing the rounds among the Indian bookmakers, as they are opening the rates in the illegal gambling (betting) bazaar for the Monsoon. The amount of money to be bet is estimated to be around Rs. 4,000 crores ($850 million). Can't believe it? The month of July is around the corner, and horrid pictures of 26/7 last year loom large in people’s minds. With roads dug up for repairs everywhere and nothing substantial having been done by the administration to improve the existing drainage system in the metropolis, the average Mumbaikar is dreading the onset of rains. One section of people, however, is awaiting monsoon with expectations of making huge amounts of money. In fact, Mumbai presents a picture of stark contradiction at present. While departments like the BMC and fire brigade are busy preparing for any eventuality during the monsoon, the police is hell bent on not letting the punters open rates for betting on the monsoon this year. However, in spite of the police vigil, the presence of clouds in the sky today has sent a wave of happiness across the betting syndicate. The rates have opened, the calls have started pouring in, and the betting agents are already hearing the sweet sound of money rolling into their accounts. According to estimates, the monsoon betting will be to the tune of Rs.4,000 crores this year. And what is interesting is that this year, the rates will be opened in millimeters, and not in inches as was the tradition. Betting on monsoon is accepted by only 5 to 7 bookies in Mumbai and elsewhere. Bookies from other cities of India camp in Mumbai for four months and engage in monsoon betting business. Earlier, these bookies used to travel themselves in cars between Colaba and Santa Cruz to accept bets, but they will leave this work to their team members this year. They will themselves be holed up in hotels in Mumbai suburbs like Thane and Navi Mumbai and keep a close eye on the business. For the last two years, betting on monsoon is being controlled from Mumbai and nearby cities only. The bookies’ men travel across Mumbai in cars and inform them of the increase and decrease in rates on phone. This is likely to continue this year as well. It is interesting to note that the bookies do not accept bets on monsoon from small punters. According to a bookie, punters who want to bet Rs.10,000 to Rs.20,000 are not entertained, and only bets of a lakh and above are accepted. In addition, bets are mostly accepted from known clients only. This is a major reason that monsoon bookies do not come into the light easily. Another interesting aspect to this business is that local people bet very sparingly on the Mumbai rains, as they have many other attractive avenues to lay bets on. They have recourse in legalized betting in the race course and illegal gambling in casinos, and they can also bet on cricket, tennis, football, films, lottery, elections, beauty pageants, etc. Apart from Mumbai, Guwahati, Pali, Indore, Jaipur, Bhopal, Surat and Ahmedabad are also important centers for monsoon betting. Mumbai records an average of 72 to 75 inches of rainfall every year. It recorded 82 inches of rainfall in 2004, 79.9 inches in 2002 and 76 inches in 2002. The rain Gods had been very favourable to the punters in 2003 and the bookies had suffered heavy losses. A deficit of only 1 millimeter had resulted in the bookies being swept away in their own tears. Last year’s 82 inches of rainfall also ensured that the bookies’ estimates were way off , but they did not have to bear losses According to sources in the betting market, this year’s monsoon rates will open in millimeters and not in inches. This is reportedly happening because the Colaba weather bureau issues rainfall reports in millimeters. The punters will find it easy to note these statistics and place their bets accordingly. The bookies generally open rates for a minimum of 65 inches and a maximum inches every year, but this year the rates have been opened for a minimum rainfall of 1500 mm (60 inches) and a maximum rainfall of 2,500 mm (80 inches). The rates fluctuate if the duration of rains is longer, and the rates keep fluctuating every hour during the monsoon. The money transaction only takes place at the end of every month, but those betting on a seasonal basis receive the returns after the season is over. Betting market sources estimate that the rainfall will be below normal this year. Naresh e Pal (name changed), a bookie engaged in betting on monsoon, believes that the current humidity levels are as per a normal year. Every year, the humidity level goes up to 85 per cent 10 to 15 days before the arrival of rains, and it is already in place as of today. Therefore, it is estimated that Mumbai will receive its first monsoon showers by June 10 to 12. Naresh believes that Mumbai will receive upto 80 inches of rainfall this year. ‘An inch of rainfall means 25.3 millimeters. The punters are paid according to the statistics released by the weather bureau located at Colaba in Mumbai. Every year, Mumbai records around 10 to 15 inches of rainfall in June, 20-25 inches in July and August each, and 8-10 inches in the month of September. The bookies open a general rate for the entire season, and also open separate rates for each month. The ‘season’ consists of a duration of 4 months starting from 1st June and ending on 30th September. Informs Naresh, ‘This is perhaps the only betting that is totally at nature’s mercy. The bookies can even ‘fix’ certain bets, but not this one. That is why the punters are most confident about the monsoon betting being fair.’ He informs that there are two reasons why monsoon betting can touch a figure of Rs.4,000 crores. Firstly, the money transaction will also be done online, apart from hawala and courier routes as in the past. The bookies and punters have already been exchanging account numbers to be used for online transactions. Secondly, the opening of rates in millimeters will make it much easier for the punters to understand the statistics and place their bets. Whatever be the nature of rains this year, the bookies will certainly have their hands – and most probably pockets too – full for the entire season. While the citizens of Mumbai are bracing themselves to face the multitude of problems that are bound to arise during the monsoon, the bookies have thrown caution to the winds and geared up for the high betting that is expected to take place. While the punters have started placing bets, the bookies have also started scheming how they will evade the keen eye of the law enforcing agencies. Rates of monsoon betting (for 4 months)
Rates of monsoon betting (month wise)
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